Think Zinc?

Zinc prices have fallen from multi-year highs reached in January and February of 2018. At around US$1.41 per pound as I write, it's not that zinc has crashed. That’s still a price well above budget for many miners.

The important question is: where does zinc go next?

I see two conflicting factors.

1. The commodities super-cycle continues curving upward. That and the continued flow of evidence of a strengthening global economy are bullish for zinc.
2. The zinc-specific supply issues that drove prices so high were never going to last forever—and they have started to ease.

So, which force is more powerful?

Hard to say. But one thing is easy to say: zinc isn’t cheap anymore.

With this reality in mind, and the fact that large amounts of new supply are coming on line, I’m going to be erring on the side of caution here. I don’t mind a good zinc credit in a story, but I’m not looking to buy zinc plays at this time.