Go Back

Speculation vs. Gambling

by Lobo Tiggre
Friday, April 28, 12:00pm, UTC, 2023


In common usage, there’s little difference between speculation and gambling. Even in popular financial media, “speculation” is often used as a pejorative, suggesting gambling rather than proper investment.

This is inaccurate—at least for the kind of disciplined speculation that Doug Casey taught me.
 

I do, however, agree that there’s a difference between investment and speculation.

  • Investment is deploying capital for an expected return, based on concrete knowns. Done well, the outcome is highly probable, such that more than a small difference in outcome is a surprise.
     
  • Speculation is deploying capital for hypothetical return, based on interpretations of trends. Done well, the outcome isn’t as high-probability as in investing, but it’s better than random chance. The better the speculator, the better the odds.
     

In contrast:

  • Gambling is betting on random probabilities of combinations of cards, pips on dice, etc. (at least in an honest game).
     

Over the years, I’ve refined my ideas on this, developing an investment toolbox I call “speculator’s discipline.”

This may sound rather theoretical, but it has very practical applications.

To download my full report on the subject, please enter your email address below.

Note that this will sign you up for our free weekly Speculator’s Digest. That generates one weekly email—no flood of hyped-up daily ads—and you can unsubscribe anytime you like.

 

 

I hope you find my speculator’s discipline helpful—and profitable.
 

Sincerely,

 

 

 

Think. Speculate.

Facts and insights to navigate the markets. Delivered FREE.

MEMBERSHIP INCLUDES
  • Free digest with fresh investment-related news and ideas on a daily basis.
  • Free reports on investment ideas for speculators.
  • Honest, unbiased trend analysis
  • Heads up on events, appearances, and other educational opportunities.
Education

Forever Free subscription

MEMBERSHIP INCLUDES
  • Monthly Newsletter Subscription
  • Requests
  • Free Access to Blog
  • Books and More
My Take

$500 (SAVE: $100) for 1-year subscription

$50 for monthly subscription

MEMBERSHIP INCLUDES
  • Field Trip Invitations
  • Free Educational Media
  • Free Access to Blog
  • Books and More
  • Monthly Newsletter Subscription
  • Conference Invitations
The Independent Speculator

$3,000 for 1-year subscription

$1,000 for quarter subscription