Kyle Johnson
People dispute the origins and meaning of the expression “may you live in interesting times.” But it’s generally agreed that the saying is intended to be a curse, with “interesting” being a euphemism for turbulent, dangerous times. I won’t say we’re cursed, but times are definitely not boring.
Last May, I used historian Robert Higgs’ theory of “regime uncertainty” to warn about the impact of Trump’s tariff overhaul. Higgs defines the concept as a time of “pervasive uncertainty among investors about the security of their property rights in their capital and its prospective returns.”
Here we are, almost a year later, and Higgs’ theory is vindicated once more.
Yes, many deals have been finalized. But many have not.
The Trump administration has yet to finalize deals with neighboring Canada and Mexico. There is no finalized deal with India (the fifth-largest economy in the world). Most important of all, no deal has been reached with China.
Thus, countless transactions involving trillions of dollars are not yet governed by a formal agreement. Investors and entrepreneurs in several major countries continue to operate without clarity. No doubt, many business leaders are electing to delay critically important decisions.
Adding more uncertainty to the mix, Trump’s tariff agreements are all subject to change. On January 13, Trump announced:
“Effective immediately, any Country (sic) doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff (sic) of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America. This Order (sic) is final and conclusive.”
How does one calculate the odds of having your business plans upended because a fellow countryman did business with Iran?
Don’t forget that the US Supreme Court has yet to rule on the legality of Trump’s new tariff regime. In the very near future, it could be partially unwound or entirely negated. Potentially, hundreds of billions would need to be refunded.
Does anyone think Trump will just go along with it if he loses in court?
His team has already said he’ll re-implement his tariff arrangements under a different legal mechanism, if necessary.
What will happen?
I don’t know… and neither do the markets. Regime uncertainty is the status quo and will likely persist for some time, possibly even after the banging of the gavel.
Trump materially changed the geopolitical balance of the world on January 3, 2026, when US special forces captured Venezuelan President Nicholas Maduro, returning him to US soil to stand trial.
By all appearances, US interests will regain access to Venezuelan oil (and might control every last drop). Venezuela also has significant deposits of gold, silver, copper, and other minerals.
It will be a long time before recent events make Venezuelan assets more relevant for investors. However, Trump now has a better hand when negotiating tariff agreements. Like it or not, capturing Maduro also gives more weight to aggressive comments made by Trump on geopolitics and international relations.
Speaking of Mexico, Trump recently said, “We’ve knocked out 97% of the drugs coming in by water. And we are going to start now hitting land, with regard to the cartels.”
He warned Cuba to “make a deal, before it is too late.”
Regarding the uprising and protests in Iran, Trump said if the government “kills peaceful protestors, which is their custom, the United States of America will come to their rescue. We are locked and loaded and ready to go.”
Speaking of Greenland, Trump explained:
“We are going to do something on Greenland whether they like it or not. Because if we don’t do it, Russia or China will take over Greenland and we’re not going to have Russia or China as a neighbor. … I would like to make a deal the easy way. But if we don’t do it the easy way, we’re going to do it the hard way.”
A reporter asked why it is so important for the US to own Greenland when it could simply extend or expand its security arrangements.
Trump answered, “because when we own it, we defend it. You don’t defend leases the same way.”
Last week, Trump threatened many European nations with tariffs in retaliation for their opposition to a deal between the US and Greenland.
Just now in Davos, Trump ruled out using military force to acquire Greenland. He revoked the threatened tariffs, announcing that he’s reached a framework agreement with NATO over the future of Greenland. Reportedly, the US might gain sovereignty over the land used for its military bases.
I’ve previously written about Trump wanting to be recognized as the best president in history. Every man in that discussion is best known and praised for his wielding of executive power, especially militarily. Whether or not redrawing the map by expanding the landmass controlled by the US puts Trump in the running for best president in history does not require examination at this moment. However, Trump’s opinion on that matter is paramount.
With Congress failing to codify much of his agenda, it seems likely that Trump will continue to make unilateral moves internationally. In the immediate future, there’s little the legislative and judicial branches can do to stop him. In case it slipped through the cracks, you should be aware that Trump called to expand America’s defense budget to $1.5 trillion for fiscal year 2027. He wants “Fortress America” and every decent fort needs protection—I suspect there are very few places Trump considers off limits. The way he sees things, China and Russia are gaining ground, the US will lose if it fails to act. Why let your enemies advance to your doorstep?
I can’t tell you what or when something major will happen. But so long as Trump is in the White House, any morning you could awake to news that you now live in a very different world.
On Sunday, January 11, Fed Chair Jerome Powell released a statement explaining that the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment relating to Powell’s testimony before the Senate Banking Committee and his comments about the renovation of the Fed’s office buildings.
The visibly shaken Powell called the official allegations a pretext for interfering with the Fed’s independence, explaining:
“This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.”
Perhaps twisting the knife, Trump denied knowledge of the DOJ’s actions, claiming, “I don’t know anything about it, but he’s certainly not very good at the Fed, and he’s not very good at building buildings.”
I seriously doubt that Trump was in the dark. He publicly berated Powell numerous times last year, prodding him to lower rates.
You’ve probably seen the memes born from Trump and Powell’s tour of the Fed’s Eccles building last June. There, Trump said he’d “love [Powell] to lower interest rates.”
At a press conference on December 30, Trump announced that he was considering bringing a lawsuit against Powell for “gross incompetence.” He added that Powell should resign and, despite being near the end of Powell’s term, he still might fire the Fed chair.
And now here we are.
Yes, Powell’s term as Fed chair ends May 15. But he is eligible to remain on the board as a governor through the end of January 2028. Many speculate that the DOJ’s criminal investigation is aimed at ensuring Powell’s rapid and total departure.
I’m not sure how or when Powell’s tenure at the Fed will come to an end. But I’d bet the farm on one thing: Trump will appoint a yes-man as the next Fed Chair. As I write, prediction markets have Kevin Warsh as the frontrunner.
So, where does 2026’s wild start leave speculators?
As we see things here at The Independent Speculator, we have new reasons to like our picks even more.
Uncertainty prevails as the world awaits the Supreme Court’s decision on Trump’s tariffs… and his reaction should they be struck down.
Geopolitically, superpowers are on high alert as many pieces are being moved around the board.
Despite a weak labor market and the so-called K-shaped economy, Trump wants to lower interest rates and spend, spend, spend—fiscal dominance on steroids. Trump will soon appoint a Fed chair who is likely to set rates as he desires and engage in various open market operations.
Safe haven demand grows every day—here, nothing outshines gold. For years, silver performed more like an industrial metal than a monetary one. But now, there seems to be significant demand from both sides of the equation.
Copper recently breached $6 per pound. But Lobo’s highest confidence trade for 2026 is still a great place to buy low and sell high.
Never forget, modern societies need base-load power—barring a Chernobyl-like meltdown, uranium has a long way to run.
And now, Lobo is coming around to the view that the oil patch may be hated enough to rate a buy.
Long story short, there’s uncertainty abound which means 2026 should be one hell of a year for resource speculators.
KJ
P.S. There’s only one place to learn how Lobo is playing the markets. Get his weekly breakdown of the critical events impacting metals and mining by subscribing to our free, no-hype, no-spam newsletter:The Digest.
