logo
Independent Speculator Political Risk Map
line
author
Author

Lobo Tiggre

September 12, 2025

People keep asking me about political risk. Where am I willing to invest? Where would I not?

Ask, and you shall receive: the map below shows my latest take on global political risk.

 

 

The map would be unreadable if I tried to label all the locations, so here’s a table that can be searched.

 

Lower Risk

Not Bad

Not Good

Not Good

Not Good

No Go

AustraliaArgentinaAbyeiGreenlandPalauAfghanistan
CanadaBosnia and HerzegovinaAlbaniaGrenadaPapua New GuineaArmenia
FinlandBotswanaAlgeriaGuadeloupeParaguayBelarus
GhanaBrazilAndorraGuatemalaPeruBurkina Faso
SwedenBritainAngolaGuineaPortugalCuba
United States of AmericaBulgariaAntigua and BarbudaGuinea-BissauPuerto RicoEcuador
 ChileAustriaHaitiQatarEl Salvador
 Côte d'IvoireAzerbaijanHondurasRepublic of CongoHoly See
 CroatiaBahamasHungaryRomaniaIran
 Democratic Republic of the CongoBahrainIcelandRwandaIraq
 Dominican RepublicBangladeshIndiaSaint Kitts and NevisJordan
 FijiBarbadosIsraelSaint LuciaLibya
 French GuianaBelgiumItalySaint Vincent and the GrenadinesLiechtenstein
 GuyanaBelizeJamaicaSamoaLuxembourg
 IndonesiaBeninJapanSan MarinoMali
 IrelandBhutanKiribatiSao Tome and PrincipeMexico
 KazakhstanBoliviaKosovoSenegalMonaco
 KenyaBruneiKyrgyzstanSeychellesNiger
 KuwaitBurundiLaosSierra LeoneNorth Korea
 MongoliaCabo VerdeLatviaSingaporePalestine State
 MoroccoCambodiaLebanonSlovakiaPanama
 New ZealandCameroonLesothoSloveniaRussia
 NicaraguaCentral African RepublicLiberiaSolomon IslandsSomalia
 Northern IrelandChadLithuaniaSouth AfricaSouth Sudan
 NorwayChinaMadagascarSouth KoreaSudan
 PhilippinesColombiaMalawiSri LankaSyria
 PolandComorosMalaysiaSvalbard and Jan MayenTonga
 Saudi ArabiaCosta RicaMaldivesSwitzerlandUkraine
 ScotlandCyprusMaltaTaiwanVenezuela
 SerbiaCzech RepublicMarshall IslandsTajikistanYemen
 SpainDenmarkMartiniqueThailand 
 SurinameDjiboutiMauritaniaTimor-Leste 
 TanzaniaDominicaMauritiusTogo 
 TurkeyEgyptMicronesiaTrinidad and Tobago 
 United Arab EmiratesEquatorial GuineaMoldovaTunisia 
 WalesEritreaMontenegroTurkmenistan 
  EstoniaMozambiqueTuvalu 
  EswatiniMyanmarUganda 
  EthiopiaNamibiaUruguay 
  Falkland IslandsNauruUzbekistan 
  FranceNepalVanuatu 
  GabonNetherlandsVietnam 
  GambiaNigeriaZambia 
  GeorgiaNorth MacedoniaZimbabwe 
  GermanyOman  
  GreecePakistan  

 

As you can see, there’s no place on earth I consider “No Risk.”

The “Lower Risk” column is relative, but in general, I’m willing to invest in these and the “Not Bad” countries.

I mean “Not Good” literally. This category includes many jurisdictions that have no mining. Some may not be anti-mining (though many are), but since there’s no mining, I can’t call them good for mining. As a rule, I’d avoid these countries and it’d take a steep discount for me to make an exception.

The “No Go” column is also literal; I do not invest in these jurisdictions. Yes, I know that there are some compelling opportunities in some of these places, but I’m fine with leaving that money—and risk—on the table. Can’t kiss all the girls.

For the US and Canada, the provinces and states are not all the same. Here’s a breakdown for both countries.

 

 

Lower Risk

Not Bad

Not Good

No Go

AlbertaBritish Columbia  
ManitobaNew Brunswick  
Newfoundland & LabradorNorthwest Territories  
OntarioNova Scotia  
QuebecNunavut  
SaskatchewanYukon  
 Prince Edward Island  

 

 

Lower Risk

Not Bad

Not Good

Not Good

No Go

AlaskaSouth CarolinaAlabamaMissouriCalifornia
Arizona ArkansasNebraskaConnecticut
Colorado District of ColumbiaNew HampshireDelaware
Idaho FloridaNew MexicoHawaii
Montana GeorgiaNorth CarolinaMassachusetts
Nevada IllinoisNorth DakotaNew Jersey
Texas IndianaOhioNew York
Utah IowaOklahomaRhode Island
Wyoming KansasOregonVermont
  KentuckyPennsylvania 
  LouisianaSouth Dakota 
  MaineTennessee 
  MarylandVirginia 
  MichiganWashington 
  MinnesotaWest Virginia 
  MississippiWisconsin 

 

Note that the question answered by these maps is simply where I would and would not invest.

I’m not claiming to have any scientific basis for my ratings. I’m not interested in debating them or defending them. 

I put my own hard-earned money at risk in The Independent Speculator portfolio—the above is simply where I will and won’t do that.

That’s it.

I do, however, plan to update these maps periodically. I don’t expect them to change often, but when jurisdictions change, I’ll update my take on them.

As always…

Caveat emptor,