People keep asking me about political risk. Where am I willing to invest? Where would I not?
Ask, and you shall receive: the map below shows my latest take on global political risk.
The map would be unreadable if I tried to label all the locations, so here’s a table that can be searched.
Lower Risk | Not Bad | Not Good | Not Good | Not Good | No Go |
Australia | Argentina | Abyei | Greenland | Palau | Afghanistan |
Canada | Bosnia and Herzegovina | Albania | Grenada | Papua New Guinea | Armenia |
Finland | Botswana | Algeria | Guadeloupe | Paraguay | Belarus |
Ghana | Brazil | Andorra | Guatemala | Peru | Burkina Faso |
Sweden | Britain | Angola | Guinea | Portugal | Cuba |
United States of America | Bulgaria | Antigua and Barbuda | Guinea-Bissau | Puerto Rico | Ecuador |
Chile | Austria | Haiti | Qatar | El Salvador | |
Côte d'Ivoire | Azerbaijan | Honduras | Republic of Congo | Holy See | |
Croatia | Bahamas | Hungary | Romania | Iran | |
Democratic Republic of the Congo | Bahrain | Iceland | Rwanda | Iraq | |
Dominican Republic | Bangladesh | India | Saint Kitts and Nevis | Jordan | |
Fiji | Barbados | Israel | Saint Lucia | Libya | |
French Guiana | Belgium | Italy | Saint Vincent and the Grenadines | Liechtenstein | |
Guyana | Belize | Jamaica | Samoa | Luxembourg | |
Indonesia | Benin | Japan | San Marino | Mali | |
Ireland | Bhutan | Kiribati | Sao Tome and Principe | Mexico | |
Kazakhstan | Bolivia | Kosovo | Senegal | Monaco | |
Kenya | Brunei | Kyrgyzstan | Seychelles | Niger | |
Kuwait | Burundi | Laos | Sierra Leone | North Korea | |
Mongolia | Cabo Verde | Latvia | Singapore | Palestine State | |
Morocco | Cambodia | Lebanon | Slovakia | Panama | |
New Zealand | Cameroon | Lesotho | Slovenia | Russia | |
Nicaragua | Central African Republic | Liberia | Solomon Islands | Somalia | |
Northern Ireland | Chad | Lithuania | South Africa | South Sudan | |
Norway | China | Madagascar | South Korea | Sudan | |
Philippines | Colombia | Malawi | Sri Lanka | Syria | |
Poland | Comoros | Malaysia | Svalbard and Jan Mayen | Tonga | |
Saudi Arabia | Costa Rica | Maldives | Switzerland | Ukraine | |
Scotland | Cyprus | Malta | Taiwan | Venezuela | |
Serbia | Czech Republic | Marshall Islands | Tajikistan | Yemen | |
Spain | Denmark | Martinique | Thailand | ||
Suriname | Djibouti | Mauritania | Timor-Leste | ||
Tanzania | Dominica | Mauritius | Togo | ||
Turkey | Egypt | Micronesia | Trinidad and Tobago | ||
United Arab Emirates | Equatorial Guinea | Moldova | Tunisia | ||
Wales | Eritrea | Montenegro | Turkmenistan | ||
Estonia | Mozambique | Tuvalu | |||
Eswatini | Myanmar | Uganda | |||
Ethiopia | Namibia | Uruguay | |||
Falkland Islands | Nauru | Uzbekistan | |||
France | Nepal | Vanuatu | |||
Gabon | Netherlands | Vietnam | |||
Gambia | Nigeria | Zambia | |||
Georgia | North Macedonia | Zimbabwe | |||
Germany | Oman | ||||
Greece | Pakistan |
As you can see, there’s no place on earth I consider “No Risk.”
The “Lower Risk” column is relative, but in general, I’m willing to invest in these and the “Not Bad” countries.
I mean “Not Good” literally. This category includes many jurisdictions that have no mining. Some may not be anti-mining (though many are), but since there’s no mining, I can’t call them good for mining. As a rule, I’d avoid these countries and it’d take a steep discount for me to make an exception.
The “No Go” column is also literal; I do not invest in these jurisdictions. Yes, I know that there are some compelling opportunities in some of these places, but I’m fine with leaving that money—and risk—on the table. Can’t kiss all the girls.
For the US and Canada, the provinces and states are not all the same. Here’s a breakdown for both countries.
Lower Risk | Not Bad | Not Good | No Go |
Alberta | British Columbia | ||
Manitoba | New Brunswick | ||
Newfoundland & Labrador | Northwest Territories | ||
Ontario | Nova Scotia | ||
Quebec | Nunavut | ||
Saskatchewan | Yukon | ||
Prince Edward Island |
Lower Risk | Not Bad | Not Good | Not Good | No Go |
Alaska | South Carolina | Alabama | Missouri | California |
Arizona | Arkansas | Nebraska | Connecticut | |
Colorado | District of Columbia | New Hampshire | Delaware | |
Idaho | Florida | New Mexico | Hawaii | |
Montana | Georgia | North Carolina | Massachusetts | |
Nevada | Illinois | North Dakota | New Jersey | |
Texas | Indiana | Ohio | New York | |
Utah | Iowa | Oklahoma | Rhode Island | |
Wyoming | Kansas | Oregon | Vermont | |
Kentucky | Pennsylvania | |||
Louisiana | South Dakota | |||
Maine | Tennessee | |||
Maryland | Virginia | |||
Michigan | Washington | |||
Minnesota | West Virginia | |||
Mississippi | Wisconsin |
Note that the question answered by these maps is simply where I would and would not invest.
I’m not claiming to have any scientific basis for my ratings. I’m not interested in debating them or defending them.
I put my own hard-earned money at risk in The Independent Speculator portfolio—the above is simply where I will and won’t do that.
That’s it.
I do, however, plan to update these maps periodically. I don’t expect them to change often, but when jurisdictions change, I’ll update my take on them.
As always…
Caveat emptor,