Kyle Johnson
Santa phoned, asking for help with his list. Here’s what I told him.
The CIO and CEO of OpenAI had a wobbly end to the year. At a Wall Street Journal event, Friar advocated for the government to provide a backstop to financing the AI buildout.
Both she and Altman attempted to backtrack. But they were caught red-handed.
I suspect many handshake deals are being made in dimly lit, smoke-filled rooms. If we see the AI infrastructure buildout come to a screeching halt, I suspect OpenAI will be a central player asking for government assistance.
Recommendation: Naughty.
The Bond King stuck to his guns last year regarding his most-trusted recession indicator: when unemployment crosses above its 36-month moving average, we’re in recession.
Well, official statistics aren’t to be trusted. Whether or not an official recession is ever recognized, it’s tough to deny that the economy is sputtering. Gundlach saw it coming before many other prominent commentators and never wavered.
With self-deprecating humor, Gundlach proclaimed earlier this year that gold was no longer just for “lunatic survivalists.”
Consider that a warm invitation if you have yet to join the party.
Recommendation: Nice.
The Treasury secretary has one of my favorite comments from a public figure this year, calling the Federal Reserve a universal basic income scheme for PhD economists.
This is both clever and true. But it doesn’t make up for the absolute disaster that was Trump’s tariff rollout.
Bessent and company offered many contradictory statements about various agreements and timetables.
Last month, he confessed that cutting tariffs would lower the cost of imported foods—a blatant contradiction of previous claims made by the administration.
Recommendation: Naughty.
Last year, Powell claimed he didn’t see the “the stag” or the “flation.” His plan regarding stagflation was “not to have [it].”
This year, we found out that his primary plan failed, and he didn’t have much of a backup plan.
Credit where due, Powell has always stated that the Fed would lower rates before inflation hit 2%. But the Fed has lowered rates while inflation drives the affordability crisis, in the midst of a weak labor market.
I’m sure that many would do a lot worse than what Powell has achieved. And I appreciate that power games are being played behind closed doors, complicating matters more than I understand. But given that Powell and the Fed control trillions of dollars and have great influence over the lives of billions, he needs to be held to a higher standard.
Recommendation: Naughty.
I started this year by covering many problems stifling economic growth. Not that I expect the president to care what I have to say, but these obvious issues have largely gone unaddressed. Thus, 2025 was another year filled with Americans wasting billions of dollars and billions of hours on red tape.
Throughout the year, Trump’s statements about tariff negotiations seemed like a random number generator, with the threatened rate often fluctuating wildly.
Love him or hate him, Trump’s political success is due in large part to his populist approach. It’s surprising to see him greatly misunderstand the affordability crisis and the lower arm of the so-called “K-shaped economy.”
Like all modern presidents, Trump inherited a financial nightmare. But his deficit spending is merely kicking the can down the road.
Recommendation: Naughty.
Speaking of kicking the can down the road… 2025 is further vindication of Alden’s Fiscal Dominance thesis—the idea that huge deficits can overpower monetary policy.
She was proven right last year. This year proves her follow-up analysis: “nothing stops this train.”
DOGE was the biggest effort we’ve seen in decades to address the deficit. But ultimately, little changed. Nobody in DC has the stomach to make serious cuts… full steam ahead, choo-choo!
Recommendation: Nice.
2025 was another abysmal year for mainstream economists, failing yet again to provide meaningful insights.
This should have been the year that inflation put many schools of thought on trial. But there’s little incentive for economists to police their own.
Recommendation: Naughty, with a special designation for repeated poor behavior.
2025 was the kind of year many long-suffering silver bugs had been expecting for quite some time.
Silver busted through its previous high of $50 per ounce, set in 1980, and seems happy to stay there.
Recommendation: Nice, but… give them coal that has been placed under extreme pressure. Many silver bugs bought around the $10/oz. mark and have held on for dear life with their diamond hands. They’ve already been rewarded, but deserve something extra special.
Gold cracked into the mainstream this year, vindicating what many gold bugs have been saying for years.
The gold-dollar exchange ratio (as Lobo likes to say) spent the great majority of the year over $3,000/oz. and much of the last 60 days over $4,000/oz.
The Hairspray Heads on TV have gone from mocking gold to sincerely asking how much investors should have in their portfolio.
Gold is starting to go mainstream. But as Rick Rule likes to point out, we’re still well below the historic norm for gold allocation.
Long story short, there’s room to run in this bull market, even after we eventually see a sizable pullback.
Recommendation: Nice.
This March, while uranium was at a 12-month low, I wrote about the uranium market being a litmus test.
Many passed, finding success in various stocks as the price per pound rose by over 19% since then.
Kudos if you powered through the dip. Don’t forget to maximize your gains.
Feel like you missed the boat?
Don’t worry, uranium’s bull market has a long way to go.
Recommendation: Nice.
Copper started the year completely off the radar for nearly all investors. But a brave few got in very early, capitalizing on its ~25% price increase this year.
Lobo identified copper as his “highest confidence” trade heading into the year. The price did rise, though not for the reasons we anticipated here at the Independent Speculator. Trump’s tariff regime threw a monkey wrench into the markets.
But copper’s long-term bull case remains unchanged. That’s why copper is Lobo’s highest-conviction trade for 2026.
Recommendation: Nice.
This year, many investors began exploring metals and mining stocks. And for good reason:
Given the time of year, I’d like to borrow a line from Officer John McClane: “Welcome to the party, pal(s).”
Recommendation: Nice.
There’s no need to rush out and start buying mining stocks if you feel like you missed out this year. But now is as good a time as any to begin or bolster your research.
Of course, we’re happy to help.
We have many free resources. And buying any paid service before January 1 will lock you in before prices go up.
KJ
P.S. We’re excited about gold, silver, uranium, and copper heading into 2026. But don’t forget about Tax Loss Season. See how Lobo is closing out the year by subscribing to our free, no-hype, no-spam newsletter: theThe Digest.
