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The Commodity Super-Cycle Is Real—But Volatile
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Lobo Tiggre

April 14, 2026

Verified Investing's Elizabeth Copeland asked me for my current outlook on monetary metals and other key critical minerals. Happily, she framed it in the context of the global commodity super-cycle, rather than asking for my military expertise on the Strait of Hormuz standoff. Great questions, and I tried to give useful answers.

 

 

Timestamps:

00:00 – Introduction: The search for yield in uncertain markets.
01:18 – State of the Commodity Super Cycle: Gold, Silver, and Copper trends.
03:28 – Resource Independence: Lessons from Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East.
05:13 – Risks to the Bull Case: Potential for global economic downturns.
06:46 – Inflationary Pressures: "Money printer going burr" and fiscal dominance.
08:29 – Oil Market Volatility: Geopolitical impacts on energy prices.
10:53 – Fiscal Dominance and Global Liquidity: Why the "dip" keeps getting bought.
13:37 – Buying the Dip in Oil: Potential entry points at $60/barrel.
15:33 – Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): Demand response after conflict.
18:31 – Are Mining Stocks Truly Cheap? Evaluating structural vs. nominal value.
22:23 – Geology vs. Politics: Rare earths and critical minerals as geopolitical chips.
27:04 – Investment Philosophy: Sticking to supply/demand fundamentals over FOMO.
27:48 – The Case for Copper: Why supply cannot keep up with modern demand.
29:40 – Permitting Challenges: Why "Dr. Copper" faces massive supply moats.
32:01 – The EV and AI Tailwind: Foundational metals for future tech.
34:22 – Portfolio Strategy: Taking profits and building a "war chest" for the next dip.