I just spent several weeks kicking rocks on behalf of clients in Argentina. Being so close, I decided to hop over to Punta del Este, Uruguay, to catch up with my old mentor, Doug Casey. We had lunch, and then dinner… spoke for almost nine hours straight.
Sorry I didn’t get a picture of us together. Time flew, and before I knew it, the sun had set, and I was seeing him off.
I wish I could regale you with a new Doug Casey story, but most of our reminisces were old stories (him flying that Russian airliner in Zimbabwe, the time we had trouble refueling an old dual-rotor chopper in Ecuador, etc.) Oddly enough, it turns out that I’ve now been closer to the South Pole than Doug has.
We did share a chuckle over a famous anarcho-capitalist like him living in a place where most of the gas stations are called ANCAP.
A lot of the conversation was personal—we spoke of our fathers, for instance—which I won’t share.
We spoke a lot about metals and other commodities, of course. We agreed about copper (bullish), lithium (bearish), and other minerals. He’s been with me on the uranium front as well; he’s loaded up, big-time.
At one point, Doug sighed and shook his head over the performance of gold stocks. I pointed out that the better companies outperformed gold in 2024. It was because of the crappy ones (a technical company descriptor I picked up from Doug) that gold stock indices and ETFs underperformed.
I warned him—as I have my readers—that we should not ignore the fact that the rising gold tide didn’t lift all ships in 2024. Most gold bugs are still assuming that at some level, the gold story will get so exciting, even the crappiest junior will rally. But…
If gold reaching almost $3,000 per ounce hasn’t helped most juniors, it’s at least prudent to question this assumption.
I told Doug that, theory aside, the better companies are delivering for shareholders, making this a stock-picker’s market. He agreed and said he should review his holdings with an eye toward pruning.
I reminded him that this is exactly the sort of thing My Take is best at. We provide resource speculators with independent due diligence to help them decide whether to buy, sell, or hold. And since he’s a member of my Board of Advisors, he has access to My Take and is welcome to use it.
He smiled and said, “I’ll do that.”
Key Point: Every stock Doug asked me about is under coverage, so I didn’t tell him anything I haven’t already told clients.
(Note to the SEC: I gave no individual investment advice. ; - )
We also talked about Bitcoin, to which he’s become a convert. I reiterated my view that I’m all in favor of private forms of money in response to gross governmental abuse of money— but that I still can’t wrap my head around crypto valuations.
I also reminded him that he used to always say that the great thing about crappy junior mining stocks was that they were the “most volatile assets on earth.” When a savvy speculator caught that volatility on the upside, it yielded gains like no other. But now, cryptos deliver far greater volatility on a daily basis. That renders this “use case” for junior mining stocks—as a class—obsolete.
He sighed and agreed it was a thought well worth keeping in mind.
Perhaps of greater general interest were our exchanges on current affairs.
Doug and I agreed on Russia more than I thought we would, but less so on Ukraine. Both of us have vivid imaginations, but we both found ourselves surprised by how much Trump has done in just a few weeks—especially DOGE.
I want to say, here in print: I greatly underestimated Trump and Musk.
I’m not saying that I now approve of everything either of them does. I’m not buying a MAGA hat (though I could be tempted by a SpaceX flame-thrower). I’m saying that I didn’t think it likely they’d get any more done than Reagan did with the Grace commission—and they already have, in just a few weeks. Have you seen that the National Debt Clock website has added a DOGE clock?
I was less surprised when I heard the Berlin wall was coming down.
Granted, Musk has waded in with a sledgehammer where a scalpel might have caused less collateral damage. But a more careful, nuanced approach “through proper channels” wouldn’t even have reached the committee hearing stage yet. They’d probably still be interviewing flunkies and picking out office furniture.
Are they making mistakes?
Sure. I’m positive they are.
But that they have taken immediate action—cutting actual expenses in a town where a decrease in an increase is considered a cut—is as much to be admired as it is astounding.
Sometimes, if something is worth doing, it’s worth doing wrong.
Doug and I are on the same page here. Sadly, as much as we celebrated DOGE’s early success, this includes agreeing that it won’t likely be enough to fix the US’ economic problems.
One thing we differed on is that Doug thinks Trump 2.0 is going to revalue the gold in Ft. Knox—maybe as high as $25,000 or $30,000—to fix the US balance sheet.
I’m skeptical.
Powell would obviously not go along with this. Nor would any mainstream economist. Even if Trump replaces Powell with someone as radical as his other top picks, revaluing gold would be, de facto, a massive dollar devaluation. It’s hard to see Trump himself going along with that while he’s saying he wants a strong dollar. There would be other major knock-on effects that would shake up not just Washington, but the entire US economy, and hence the global economy as well.
Many people around Trump would likely try to talk him out of it.
As it happens, Treasury Secretary Bessent was just asked about marking US gold reserves to market on Bloomberg. He said it was “not what I had in mind.”
Bessent also said Ft. Knox is audited every year. The last audit was last September. Any senator can go check it out whenever s/he likes. First time I ever heard any of this. If it’s so, why hasn’t Rand Paul gone, if only to reassure his father?
Back to Doug: he thinks a big reset is coming. These multi-trillion-dollar deficits are unsustainable. Something’s gotta give—and it will probably happen on Trump’s watch.
I’m not so sure.
I mean, it should happen.
Despite DOGE, the US is on an utterly ridiculous fiscal path. This includes policies favored by Republicans. We agreed on that.
But The Powers That Be have proven far more adept at kicking the can down the road than Doug or I imagined possible before. I remember all too well that neither of us thought the GFC of 2008 could be papered over… and yet, it was.
Perhaps the US will have to take its debt-to-GDP ratio to—or beyond—Japanese levels before the house of cards finally collapses.
That’s not a prediction. I absolutely do not know. I’m just very reluctant to conclude that this time the proverbial “it” is finally imminent.
Apart from this, our outlooks are much alike: higher inflation ahead. That’s bullish for commodities in general and monetary metals in particular.
We also talked about our businesses…
I was surprised and very pleased to hear that Doug is working on his books on a daily basis. He writes something every week for InternationalMan.com. And he’s enjoying it. It seems that, like Rick Rule, he tried to retire and failed.
For his part, Doug was surprised to learn that I’ve deviated from his “you’ll lose on most of your bets, but with the big wins, you will average better than the ordinary bear” strategy. My track record of completed trades since the inception of The Independent Speculator currently shows 30 wins out of 45 speculations. That’s a 66.66% win rate.
Sure they aren’t all big wins. Sometimes I barely got out with my original investment intact. But the gains average out to 41.1%, which ain’t too shabby. I told Doug that I may have fewer 10-baggers than others, but I’m good at avoiding the total wipe-outs the mining newsletter business is known for. On some picks, he used to say, “It’s worth a punt.” I never do. He agreed my approach is sensible.
I told Doug that I have no office, no cubicle dwellers tasked with sales, marketing, or compliance—and that my biggest expense is the team of contract due diligence analysts I’m training. Then he really smiled. He said that I’m doing the newsletter business right—like Richard Russell.
You know… it is possible for a wolf to blush under his fur. This made me squirm almost as much as Doug’s comments when I launched The Independent Speculator.
Ahem.
Back to Doug. Note that I said “books”—plural.
Casey fans will be happy to hear that the next novel in Doug’s High Ground (Speculator) series is well advanced.
Doug is also working on a book intended to offer guidance to young people seeking to get a real education instead of going to college. This will be much more than a syllabus of curated academic knowledge. It will have ideas and recommendations for specific educational tasks and journeys to undertake in order to emerge as a truly well-educated man or woman of the world.
I can’t wait to get my paws on both books.
It was late at night and very dark when Doug finally got in his car (the only Mercedes speedster of its kind in Uruguay, he said) and drove off. The stars were bright. I pointed out the Orion constellation, expressing surprise that it was visible south of the equator. He said it was one you can see from both the Northern and Southern hemispheres… but he couldn’t look up at it because of a number of fused vertebrae.
Whether it’s from crashing Ferraris or getting squashed by polo ponies, Doug’s been hard on his body, and it shows. I can see it pains him to walk. But his mind is as sharp as ever.
Doug Casey is still in the saddle, wading into today’s intellectual battlefields where few dare follow.
It was great to see my friend again.
